A Bayesian approach towards daily pan-Arctic sea ice freeboard estimates from combined CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 satellite observations

Observations of sea ice freeboard from satellite radar altimeters are crucial in the derivation of sea ice thickness estimates, which in turn provide information on sea ice forecasts, volume budgets, and productivity rates. Current spatio-temporal resolution of radar freeboard is limited as 30 d are required in order to generate pan-Arctic coverage from CryoSat-2 and 27 d are required from Sentinel-3 satellites. This therefore hinders our ability to understand physical processes that drive sea ice thickness variability on sub-monthly timescales. In this study we exploit the consistency between CryoSat-2, Sentinel-3A, and Sentinel-3B radar freeboards in order to produce daily gridded pan-Arctic freeboard estimates between December 2018 and April 2019. We use the Bayesian inference approach of Gaussian process regression to learn functional mappings between radar freeboard observations in space and time and to subsequently retrieve pan-Arctic freeboard as well as uncertainty estimates. We also employ an empirical Bayesian approach towards learning the free (hyper)parameters of the model, which allows us to derive daily estimates related to radar freeboard spatial and temporal correlation length scales. The estimated daily radar freeboard predictions are, on average across the 2018–2019 season, equivalent to CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 freeboards to within 1 mm (standard deviations <6 cm), and cross-validation experiments show that errors in predictions are, on average, ≤ 4 mm across the same period. We also demonstrate the improved temporal variability of a pan-Arctic daily product by comparing time series of the predicted freeboards, with 31 d running means from CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 freeboards, across nine sectors of the Arctic, as well as making comparisons with daily ERA5 snowfall data. Pearson correlations between daily radar freeboard anomalies and snowfall are as high as +0.52 over first-year ice and +0.41 over multi-year ice, suggesting that the estimated daily fields are able to capture real physical radar freeboard variability at sub-weekly timescales

Machine learning approaches to retrieve pan-Arctic melt ponds from visible satellite imagery

Melt ponds on sea ice play an important role in the seasonal evolution of the summer ice cover. In this study we present two machine learning algorithms, one (multi-layer neural network) for the retrieval of melt pond binary classification and another (multinomial logistic regression) for melt pond fraction using moderate resolution visible satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). To minimize the impact of the anisotropic reflectance characteristics of sea ice and melt ponds, normalized MODIS band reflectance differences from top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) measured reflectances were used. The training samples for the machine learning were based on MODIS reflectances extracted for sea ice, melt ponds and open water classifications based on high resolution (~2 m) WorldView (WV) data. The accuracy assessment for melt pond binary classification and fraction is further evaluated against WV imagery, showing mean overall accuracy (85.5%), average mean difference (0.09), and mean RMSE (0.18). In addition to cross-validation with WV, retrieved melt pond data are validated against melt pond fractions from satellite and ship-based observations, showing average mean differences (MD), root-mean-square-error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients (R) of 0.05, 0.12, and 0.41, respectively. We further investigate a case study of the spectral characteristics of melt ponds and ice during refreezing, and demonstrate an approach to mask out refrozen pixels by using yearly maps of melt onset and freeze-up data together with ice surface temperatures (IST). Finally, an example of monthly mean pan-Arctic melt pond binary classification and fraction are shown for July 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019. Bulk processing of the entire 20 years of MODIS data will provide the science community with a much needed pan-Arctic melt pond data set

Regional September Sea Ice Forecasting with Complex Networks and Gaussian Processes

Reliable predictions of the Arctic sea ice cover are becoming of paramount importance for Arctic communities and industry stakeholders. In this study pan-Arctic and regional September mean sea ice extents are forecast with lead times of up to 3 months using a complex network statistical approach. This method exploits relationships within climate time series data by constructing regions of spatiotemporal homogeneity (i.e., nodes), and subsequently deriving teleconnection links between them. Here the nodes and links of the networks are generated from monthly mean sea ice concentration fields in June, July, and August; hence, individual networks are constructed for each respective month. Network information is then utilized within a linear Gaussian process regression forecast model, a Bayesian inference technique, in order to generate predictions of sea ice extent. Pan-Arctic forecasts capture a significant amount of the variability in the satellite observations of September sea ice extent, with detrended predictive skills of 0.53, 0.62, and 0.81 at 3-, 2-, and 1-month lead times, respectively. Regional forecasts are also performed for nine Arctic regions. On average, the highest predictive skill is achieved in the Canadian Archipelago, Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, although the ability to accurately predict many of these regions appears to be changing over time

Stress and deformation characteristics of sea ice in a high-resolution, anisotropic sea ice model

The drift and deformation of sea ice floating on the polar oceans is caused by the applied wind and ocean currents. Over ocean basin length scales the internal stresses and boundary conditions of the sea ice pack result in observable deformation patterns. Cracks and leads can be observed in satellite images and within the velocity fields generated from floe tracking. In a climate sea ice model the deformation of sea ice over ocean basin length scales is modelled using a rheology that represents the relationship between stresses and deformation within the sea ice cover. Here we investigate the link between emergent deformation characteristics and the underlying internal sea ice stresses using the Los Alamos numerical sea ice climate model. We have developed an idealized square domain, focusing on the role of sea ice rheologies in producing deformation at spatial resolutions of up to 500 m. We use the elastic anisotropic plastic (EAP) and elastic viscous plastic (EVP) rheologies, comparing their stability, with the EAP rheology producing sharper deformation features than EVP at all space and time resolutions. Sea ice within the domain is forced by idealized winds, allowing for the emergence of five distinct deformation types. Two for a low confinement ratio: convergent and expansive stresses. Two about a critical confinement ratio: isotropic and anisotropic conditions. One for a high confinement ratio and isotropic sea ice. Using the EAP rheology and through the modification of initial conditions and forcing, we show the emergence of the power law of strain rate, in accordance with observations.This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling of sea-ice phenomena'

New estimates of pan-Arctic sea ice-atmosphere neutral drag coefficients from ICESat-2 elevation data

The effect that sea ice topography has on the momentum transfer between ice and atmosphere is not fully quantified due to the vast extent of the Arctic and limitations of current measurement techniques. Here we present a method to estimate pan-Arctic momentum transfer via a parameterization that links sea ice-atmosphere form drag coefficients with surface feature height and spacing. We measure these sea ice surface feature parameters using the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). Though ICESat-2 is unable to resolve as well as airborne surveys, it has a higher along-track spatial resolution than other contemporary altimeter satellites. As some narrow obstacles are effectively smoothed out by the ICESat-2 ATL07 spatial resolution, we use near-coincident high-resolution Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) elevation data from NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) mission to scale up the regional ICESat-2 drag estimates. By also incorporating drag due to open water, floe edges and sea ice skin drag, we produced a time series of average total pan-Arctic neutral atmospheric drag coefficient estimates from November 2018 to May 2022. Here we have observed its temporal evolution to be unique and not directly tied to sea ice extent. By also mapping 3-month aggregates for the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 for better regional analysis, we found the thick multiyear ice area directly north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland to be consistently above 2.0×10-3, while most of the multiyear ice portion of the Arctic is typically around ∼1.5×10-3

Cryosat-2 significant wave height in polar oceans derived using a semi-analytical model of synthetic aperture radar 2011-2019

This paper documents the retrieval of significant ocean surface wave heights in the Arctic Ocean from CryoSat-2 data. We use a semi-analytical model for an idealised synthetic aperture satellite radar or pulse-limited radar altimeter echo power. We develop a processing methodology that specifically considers both the Synthetic Aperture and Pulse Limited modes of the radar that change close to the sea ice edge within the Arctic Ocean. All CryoSat-2 echoes to date were matched by our idealised echo revealing wave heights over the period 2011–2019. Our retrieved data were contrasted to existing processing of CryoSat-2 data and wave model data, showing the improved fidelity and accuracy of the semi-analytical echo power model and the newly developed processing methods. We contrasted our data to in situ wave buoy measurements, showing improved data retrievals in seasonal sea ice covered seas. We have shown the importance of directly considering the correct satellite mode of operation in the Arctic Ocean where SAR is the dominant operating mode. Our new data are of specific use for wave model validation close to the sea ice edge and is available at the link in the data availability statement

MEMS tunable capacitors with fragmented electrodes and rotational electro-thermal drive

This paper reports on the design, simulation and fabrication of tunable MEMS capacitors with fragmented metal (AlSi 4%) electrodes. We examine a rotational electro-thermal actuation. An analytic model of the rotational effect thermal actuator was established in order to show the periodicity of the capacitance when the angle increases. Evaluation of the impact of fringing fields on the capacitance has been carried out using finite element analysis (FEA). The MEMS capacitors were fabricated using metal surface micromachining with polyimide sacrificial layer. The maximum rotation, corresponding to a maximum angle of 7°, was obtained near 1.2V and 299mA. The proposed capacitor has a practical tuning range of 30%. FEA has shown that this figure can be improved with design optimization. The MEMS architecture based on rotational effect and fragmented electrodes does not suffer from the pull in effect and offers a practical solution for future above-IC capacitor

A Facet-Based Numerical Model for Simulating SAR Altimeter Echoes from Heterogeneous Sea Ice Surfaces

Cryosat-2 has provided measurements of pan-Arctic sea ice thickness since 2010 with unprecedented spatial coverage and frequency. However, it remains uncertain how the Ku-band radar interacts with the vast range of scatterers that can be present within the satellite footprint, including sea ice with varying physical properties and multi-scale roughness, snow cover, and leads. Here, we present a numerical model designed to simulate delay-Doppler SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) altimeter echoes from snow-covered sea ice, such as those detected by Cryosat-2. Backscattered echoes are simulated directly from triangular facetbased models of actual sea ice topography generated from Operation IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) data, as well as virtual statistical models simulated artificially. We use these waveform simulations to investigate the sensitivity of SAR altimeter echoes to variations in satellite parameters (height, pitch, roll) and sea ice properties (physical properties, roughness, presence of water). We show that the conventional Gaussian assumption for sea ice surface roughness may be introducing significant error into the Cryosat-2 waveform retracking process. Compared to a more representative lognormal surface, an echo simulated from a Gaussian surface with rms roughness height of 0.2 m underestimates the ice freeboard by 5 cm – potentially underestimating sea ice thickness by around 50 cm. We present a set of ‘ideal’ waveform shape parameters simulated for sea ice and leads to inform existing waveform classification techniques. This model will ultimately be used to improve retrievals of key sea ice properties, including freeboard, surface roughness and snow depth, from SAR altimeter observations

Stress and deformation characteristics of sea ice in a high-resolution, anisotropic sea ice model

The drift and deformation of sea ice floating on the polar oceans is caused by the applied wind and ocean currents. Over ocean basin length scales the internal stresses and boundary conditions of the sea ice pack result in observable deformation patterns. Cracks and leads can be observed in satellite images and within the velocity fields generated from floe tracking. In a climate sea ice model the deformation of sea ice over ocean basin length scales is modelled using a rheology that represents the relationship between stresses and deformation within the sea ice cover. Here we investigate the link between emergent deformation characteristics and the underlying internal sea ice stresses using the Los Alamos numerical sea ice climate model. We have developed an idealized square domain, focusing on the role of sea ice rheologies in producing deformation at spatial resolutions of up to 500 m. We use the elastic anisotropic plastic (EAP) and elastic viscous plastic (EVP) rheologies, comparing their stability, with the EAP rheology producing sharper deformation features than EVP at all space and time resolutions. Sea ice within the domain is forced by idealized winds, allowing for the emergence of five distinct deformation types. Two for a low confinement ratio: convergent and expansive stresses. Two about a critical confinement ratio: isotropic and anisotropic conditions. One for a high confinement ratio and isotropic sea ice. Using the EAP rheology and through the modification of initial conditions and forcing, we show the emergence of the power law of strain rate, in accordance with observations.This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling of sea-ice phenomena'

A 10-year record of Arctic summer sea ice freeboard from CryoSat-2

Satellite observations of pan-Arctic sea ice thickness have so far been constrained to winter months. For radar altimeters, conventional methods cannot differentiate leads from meltwater ponds that accumulate at the ice surface in summer months, which is a critical step in the ice thickness calculation. Here, we use over 350 optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from the summer months to train a 1D convolution neural network for separating CryoSat-2 radar altimeter returns from sea ice floes and leads with an accuracy >80%. This enables us to generate the first pan-Arctic measurements of sea ice radar freeboard for May–September between 2011 and 2020. Results indicate that the freeboard distributions in May and September compare closely to those from a conventional ‘winter’ processor in April and October, respectively. The freeboards capture expected patterns of sea ice melt over the Arctic summer, matching well to ice draft observations from the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Program (BGEP) moorings. However, compared to airborne laser scanner freeboards from Operation IceBridge and airborne EM ice thickness surveys from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) IceBird program, CryoSat-2 freeboards are underestimated by 0.02–0.2 m, and ice thickness is underestimated by 0.28–1.0 m, with the largest differences being over thicker multi-year sea ice. To create the first pan-Arctic summer sea ice thickness dataset we must address primary sources of uncertainty in the conversion from radar freeboard to ice thickness